SF + Peninsula Market Update 1H 2026

California’s median home price reached a new record of $930,260 in May, rising 3.1% from a year earlier and crossing $900,000 for the second time in 2026. Sales were also up 5.1% year over year, marking the strongest annual gain in eight months, though statewide activity remained below the 300,000-unit benchmark for the 44th straight month.

Higher-priced sales are doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Homes priced from $1 million to $2 million rose 8.2% year over year, while sales above $2 million climbed 8.5%. In the Bay Area, the median reached $1.45 million, with sales up 5.5% from last year. San Francisco County stood out even more, with a $2.2 million median and sales up 19.7% year over year.

It costs more than ever to own a home in San Francisco, a surge driven largely by the luxury market. In March, the overall median home price reached a record $2.15 million. That’s an 18% jump from a year earlier, and $100,000 above the prior peak, set in April 2022 during the pandemic-era boom.

Twenty-two San Francisco houses sold for more than $5 million in March, topping the previous monthly record of 21 in June 2021. A striking 24 luxury condominiums sold for more than $3 million—nearly four times the total in March 2025 and well above the prior record of 17 in August 2021. Condo prices are up nearly 30% year over year, though still below the April 2022 peak of $1.375 million.

Here's a breakdown by each area of the city for the overbidding activity in San Francisco!

The SF "Avenues" and Southern part of the city are hot! Houses in particular!

Districts 1, 2, 4, and 5 with neighborhoods such as Sunset, Richmond, Forest Hill, and Noe Valley.

Here's a quick short (30 seconds) of some examples of the crazy overbidding in San Francisco now. 

San Francisco real estate is doing something most people didn’t expect…Homes selling $1M–$2M+ over asking, multiple offers, and intense buyer demand are back...

Table summarizing San Francisco neighborhoods by district, showing the average sale-price-to-list-price percentage (SP/LP%) and the number of addresses counted for each area, plus district totals. Includes Districts 1, 2, 4, and 5 with neighborhoods such as Sunset, Richmond, Forest Hill, and Noe Valley.

from the SF Chronicle: Spring is here, bringing with it warm weather, northbound migratory birds and — at least in some Bay Area neighborhoods — a blisteringly competitive housing market.

Take San Francisco’s 94131 ZIP code, for example. The typical home in the area, which stretches from Mount Sutro to Glen Park, grew from a value of $1.45 million in August 2025 to $1.58 million in February 2026.

That 9% jump was the biggest of any Bay Area ZIP code with a population of 5,000 or more, but it was far from the only San Francisco area to see a big increase over just six months. The typical home value in the 94121 ZIP code, which includes the Outer Richmond and Sea Cliff, rose by about 8%, according to data from real estate listing company Zillow.

OpenAI Inks Another Mission Bay Lease

This is certainly a great thing for Mission Bay, South Beach, SOMA, Potrero Hill home and condo prices.

The Sam Altman-led company has been expanding both in San Francisco and south in Silicon Valley.

The ink has dried on OpenAI’s latest expansion in San Francisco. 

The artificial intelligence behemoth and creator of ChatGPT signed a deal to sublease approximately 280,000 square feet of office space at the former Dropbox headquarters complex in Mission Bay, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. The firm had reportedly been looking at that space at 1800 Owens Street, known as the Exchange, earlier this year. Confirmation of the lease signing came from a March market report from Newmark, according to the Chronicle. 

One notable sale 729 Chiltern a nicely renovated 5BR 7BA 6015sf on a half acre lot asking $11.995M ($1994.18/sf) quickly went PENDING and sold 20% over asking for $14.5M!

Overall 27 homes on the market as of this writing and in January there were 19. Sales are steady and there is nothing that is causing a noticeable change in buyer/seller dynamics here as it's always been an area of lower inventory with strong demand for homes. 

A quick chart-based snapshot comparing active home listings and completed sales from January through March, highlighting how inventory and sales activity change month to month. 

It does show an increase in active listings, but that is normal for this time of year as sellers come to market to sell in the Spring.

One of my favorite properties currently for sale in Lakeview...

45 Calaveras Court, Hillsborough, CA 8 BR 7 BA 7132 ft.² built new asking $11.8 million in Lakeview, Hillsborough situated on a private cul-de-sac built in 2025 on a 4 acre lot. Amazing home. Listed by Pierre and Alex Buljan of Compass.

Example of a home that sold for 22% over asking.

Four bedroom three bath 2200 ft.² 7727 lot home was built in 1969 nice views 1912 Los Altos Dr. in San Mateo Baywood Park asking $2.498 million listed by Debbie Sanders of Compass walk-through on February 22, 2026

Los Altos Hills is behaving similarly to Hillsborough - steady sales, but more new inventory coming on line March which is going to be placing downward pressure on prices - however, these homes, like Hillsborough are targeting a super affluent with 14 homes currently asking over $10M - (21888 Blue Oaks Place is the highest asking $30M)

This is a great home I saw the other day - 1 acre lot, 5000 sf... Partial Walkthrough here! 

Listing for 26900 Beatrice Lane, Los Altos Hills, presented by Jen Paulson (Sereno Christie’s International Real Estate). 

What moves real estate in San Francisco and the Bay Area? A handpicked SF Bay Area update for 2026—what’s changing, why it matters, and what I’m watching next. I put them into a few categories 1. Mortgage Interest Rates 2. Consumer Sentiment + Housing Outlook 3. Local Job Growth 4. Cost of Housing + Rents 5. Local Zoning / City Improvements mark

San Francisco's real estate market in early 2025 presents a nuanced landscape characterized by neighborhood-specific performance and evolving buyer preferences. The city has experienced a notable recalibration with distinct divergence between neighborhoods that accommodate remote work effectively versus those historically valued for office proximity.